Skip to content
Keflavík Airport

    Stability in Foreign Tourist Numbers but a Decline in Total Passengers

    Over 7.5 million passengers are expected to travel through Keflavík Airport (KEF) in 2026, including 2.24 million foreign tourists, according to the airport’s newly published passenger forecast.
    5 min read

    The forecast assumes a year-on-year decline in total passenger numbers, driven mainly by fewer connecting passengers and reduced international travel by Icelanders. Meanwhile, the number of foreign tourists visiting Iceland is expected to remain virtually unchanged and in line with recent years.

    It is clear that demand for visiting Iceland remains both strong and stable. This is reflected in the fact that we expect the same number of foreign visitors next year as we have welcomed in recent years. The withdrawal of Play from the market has, of course, affected flight availability, but through targeted efforts we have been able to limit the impact, especially when it comes to foreign visitors.

    Grétar Már GarðarssonDirector of Airlines and Marketing at Keflavík Airport

    KEF’s forecast for 2026 projects 7.51 million passengers, compared to 8.12 million in 2025, a 7.4% decrease year-on-year. The decline is expected to be 8.1% during the summer months and 6.0% in winter. The largest change is among connecting passengers, who are forecast to decrease by 15.3%, while international travel by Icelanders is projected to fall by 13.2%. Departing and arriving passengers combined will decline more modestly, by 4.5%.

    “We have been working systematically to fill the gap left by Play, which was our second-largest carrier. Although the gap has not yet been fully closed, we see several positive signs. For instance, if we compare the forecast to actual 2025 figures excluding Play, we see a 5.3% year-on-year increase in total passengers. This shows that other airlines are doing well in taking over the capacity,” says Grétar Már.

    The tourist forecast includes both foreign tourists arriving in Iceland and Icelanders travelling abroad via KEF. An estimated 2.24 million foreign tourists will visit Iceland in 2026, compared to 2.27 million in 2025, a 1.2% change. However, international travel by Icelanders is expected to decline significantly next year, with 602,000 trips projected, down from 693,000 this year (a 13.2% decrease).

    “It is very encouraging that the number of foreign tourists remains almost unchanged. Their numbers have been remarkably stable in recent years, between 2.2 and 2.3 million annually since 2023,” says Grétar Már.

    New air­lin­es and new conn­ec­tions

    During the summer season, 27 airlines are scheduled to operate flights to 80 destinations, while 20 airlines will serve 65 destinations in winter. Two new carriers, Alaska Airlines and Air Transat, have already announced the launch of scheduled flights to KEF in the new year. In addition, five new North American connections and six new European connections will be added. The share of connecting passengers is estimated at 25%, a somewhat lower proportion than in recent years.

    About KEF’s Pass­enger For­ec­asts

    The 2026 KEF Passenger Forecast is based on an analysis of factors influencing passenger demand for flights to and from the airport. The forecast relies on data about handling times secured by airlines, information from KEF Airport's systems, and updates on airline plans.

    Passenger numbers are categorized into three sections, including departing, arriving, and connecting passengers. Departing passengers are those departing from the airport after a stay in Iceland. Arriving passengers are those entering Iceland to stay, while connecting passengers use KEF as a transfer hub, changing to another flight without entering the country. Connecting passengers are counted both on arrival and departure.